Press/Media
Quoting Propabilities
Users that are not yet using predictX might be interested in whether or not X will happen. Feel free to share and quote anything from this website. Just include the source.
Propabilities above 50% (e.g. 75%) do not state that the event will definetely occur. It just means that in 10 repititions the predicted outcome will occur 7.5 times. So be careful about interpreting propabilities.
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About predictX
Experts have tried it. Paul (the octopus) has tried it. Twitter has tried it.
It turned out that predicting the future ain't easy pie.
PredictX predicts the future better than anybody else! Why this is?
- Users trade on whether or not future events will occur. The aggregation of 123678123 beliefs is more accurate than experts with fancy excelsheets.
- Event prices are not influenced by external factors (interest rates, exchange rates, bubbles) like on financial markets.
- The mechanism is fundamentally different to gambling platforms (collecting money from users, setting quotes and paying off) and other platforms.
What's the story behind?
PredictX is a non-commercial crowdsourcing platform that allows users to create, trade and share future events. Generally speaking it is a hybrid of derivative trading (the outcome of events), skill gaming (no real money is traded) and youtube (everybody creates content). We have been fascinated by existing prediction markets but realized that existing platforms are highly technical (complicated to use), are closed (do not allow users to be involved in event creation) and list contracts in a static manner. Most importantly, trading was painful due to lacking liquidity in markets. In most cases it takes days or weeks before out orders were matched by a counter-party.So we decided to focus our academic research on how to build a better one. Several technological developments allowed us to launch the next level of crowd forecasting:
- Unlimited Trading: We have implemented a new market maker that sets prices in sensitivity to more variables than the Google page rank algorithm (or just as many maybe)
- Simplicity: Developing highly sophisticated technology is good. Making the use of such technology so easy that grandma can handle it is better.
- Social: We provide the platform, review events (to prevent spam and trash) and settle the outcomes. Everything else is done by users. Internetocracy!
- Relevance: Find the events you have been looking for. Instant filters, highly usable interfaces and clear structures make it possible.
PredictX was founded by 2 graduate economic students (London School of Economics / St. Gallen University) who were so fascinated by prediction markets that they decided to built their very own platform. Data wil be used for scientific analysis. True Story.
